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There is one other possibility, though. Unlike Iowa, Hillary got a huge margin from women voters. Seems possible to me that this was a reaction to the media piling on of the past few days, culminating in the absurdly over-done reaction to a few tears.
It made women identify with her. Here's her problem: she can't do that again every time she gets into a tough spot. She played that card once. The next time she does it, it'll be transparently phony and staged.
Here's the reality: the forces of cynicism weren't going to go down without a fight. Though Hillary Clinton won the primary, 61% of Democrats voted against her. (Memo to Edwards: you made a valiant run, but drop out; you're taking votes from Obama and thereby enabling the "status quo," now).
Also here's the other reality: Clinton may have won the battle, but she may also lose the war. Now she can't skip South Carolina to focus on Super Tuesday. She's obligated to go there and spend big money. If she loses that, New Hampshire will be a footnote going into Super Tuesday, and Obama will once again have the momentum.
The reality is that it's dead even at the quarter pole. Nevada isn't as important as South Carolina, and will garner less media attention. Michigan is totally worthless as Hillary's the only name on the ballot. And Florida doesn't count.
That leaves South Carolina. If Obama wins there, he'll get the nomination. If he doesn't, he probably won't. I will figure out a way to travel there and volunteer for him this week. We have to stand up for our country now. It's time to go win the battle on doorsteps.
It was the "choke up" and women reacting to the media of it (it wasn't nearly as negative as some portray it).
The Bradley Effect is real in 2008...atleast in New Hampshire. Wow.
The good news is that 36 + 17 = 53.
Obama Voters + Edward Voters = Victory
Edwards voters will align with Obama.
Please make sure you are registered for your primaries
http://www.registrationbyworkingassets.com/register/
That ish will count.
Not sure if it was the Bradley effect or the tears or an inflated sense of victory flamed by the press and public, but it's emerging as a two person race this thing.
Neither candidate can take anything for granted, and THAT is good for democracy.
It ain't over by a long shot.
The tear thing was a positive, supportive response of a gender. It was especially powerful among working Moms that often feel stressed about their professional lives. It spoke to their hearts, and was undoubtedly a powerful moment. The Clintons knew the way the media would portray it, and it worked beautifully. But that card can only be played once. If it's played again, it'll come off as cold, calculating, and cynical. The election will be decided in South Carolina. I think it's a 50/50 chance at the moment.
Those who say they decided today SAY they voted 37% for Obama and 36% for Obama. These numbers make no sense. They are clearly lying to pollsters. I could the pre-eledtion pollsters and exit pollsters have all gotten it wrong?
While we wanted to believe that IA was representative of the changing face of American is was merely an aberration. I just hope this is the LAST election in which IA and NH, two of the five whitest states, play such a key role in the nomination process.
Not only because he split the anti-Hillary vote, but because he took a shot at Clinton after the crying incident.
I don't believe women voted for Clinton b/c she cried. I believe women voted for Clinton b/c men kicked her while she was down.
Obama made a tactical mistake in my judgment by no coming to her defense in some way.
I agree with this.
Obama made a tactical mistake in my judgment by no coming to her defense in some way.
I disagree here. If he came off as "coming to her defense" he would have been accused of being patronizing. It was a no win situation there.
BUT
He did NOT lose by a big margin and there are still 48 states left! I think Obama will take Nevada and definitely South Carolina. I think Bill Clinton's race-tinged insults - and his patronizing tone that Donna Brazile recently noted - will hurt him with blacks - and not just in South Carolina. I don't think the Clintons realize how they have turned many of us off with the Madrassa/Kindergarten-gate, "the Republicans - not us! - will ask if Barack ever sold drugs to anyone" debacle and the infamous "who does this n____r think he is" Charlie Rose interview.
That said, I've heard some folks talking up a possible McCain/Huckabee matchup - terrifying.
I think it's as simple as that. There is no upset here.
this happens on lots of levels, but among them: 1) those polled are not incubated in sound-proof booths and 2) media (and other) types tend to come up with their own hypotheses that they "poll" to prove.
i honestly think that, quite simply, the reported polls reflected what the media wanted them to reflect...they wanted a bounce (which clinton advisor mark penn said wouldn't happen), and they wanted to see front-runner hillary 2 down. not suggesting they want obama to win, but it was clearly more fun to see clinton down.
in any case, everyone knew it was going to be close. his closest advisors are quoted as making it clear that they weren't out of the woods, so the "upset" that the media is painting is far from what the actual numbers and expectations were on the ground.
Upon further examination of the inside numbers, I think there is a less pressing case for the Bradley effect. I suspect it had an impact with older voters who would not vote for a Black candidate under circumstance, but Obama did as well with men of all ages that Hillary did with women. It's hard to believe that White women in NH are more racist then men. I think this clearly the result of her protraying herself--YET AGAIN--as a victim. White women felt that she was on the verge of being deprived something owed to her and they swung to her side. That said, Obama needs to aim for well-educated women. He can't compete with poor White women, period. Moreover, there was a lower than expected youth turn out. Keep in mind that NHU was NOT in session.
All that said, he only lost by 2% points in the 2nd whitest state in the country. And that has to be the message sent to Black folks in SC. Moving forward, his ground troops have to focus on higher turnout among African Americans, the youth, men, and well-educated, professional White women who might be turned off to Hillary Clinton's professional victim act.
I thought this was a presidential election not The High School Musical. John Edwards wife is dying of cancer and lost a teenage son. Why the hell should he feel sorry for Hillary Clinton simply because she's crying over her personal ambition!
Juxtapose Hillary Clinton with Bhutto who just got her damn head shot off and never cried a tear in public before that. This mass sympathy for a crying for a privileged White woman is really fucked up!
But, here's the thing - Clinton can lose SC, but still do well enough on Super Tuesday to win the nomination. The Clintons are still the Dem. Establishment, with all the tolls that come with being that status.
If Obama loses SC, I don't think he will get the nomination. But, if Hillary starts talking in her "blaccent" while campaigning in SC, it's time to call her on it.
Obama can still pull in the male vote (all ages, both parties) far better than Clinton. Plus, if given a choice between Obama and Clinton, most Republican voters (not the party's power brokers) would choose Obama. That's why the hard right is hoping Clinton wins the nomination, since nothing rallies their base like a Clinton in the spotlight.
One thing (among many) that bugs me about the news coverage is that the media keep saying, "Women turned out for HRC". Why not make the more accurate statement, "White women turned out for HRC"?
- KXB
I wonder - are the campaigns canvassing the black colleges in South Carolina and Georgia for the educated black youth vote?