DISQUS

Jack and Jill Politics: Obama Pulls Ahead in S. Carolina. Oprah Effect?

  • rikyrah · 2 years ago
    I think Oprah was fabulous for him in South Carolina. While White women LUV Oprah, Black women RESPECT Oprah.


    Her standing there, saying that if she had waited for people to tell her that it was 'her time', where would she be?



    They nodded in agreement with Obama. They knew what she meant. Oprah was piggybacking on the recent Michelle Obama remarks about not being ' fearful'.





    The whole thing with our Brothers and Sisters in South Carolina is...



    are you serious? Do you think that he CAN WIN? Oprah says that he can..just believe.
  • Bob McCarty Writes · 2 years ago
    Much of the political world’s attention in recent days has been focused upon Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama and how he might benefit from the so-called “Oprah Effect.” Conversely, little attention has been paid to the impact of the “Okra Effect” -- that is, until now.


    During the last weekend of September, Republican presidential candidates traveled to Irmo, S.C., to participate in the Okra Strut, an event described in a <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/10/04/s_carolina_key_in_republicans_ambitions/" rel="nofollow" title="Boston.com Article 10-04-07">Boston.com article as “a parade and festival celebrating the slimy green vegetable so beloved in the South.”



    While some might scoff at the notion of the Okra Effect, I do not. Why not? Because I’ve analyzed events that have transpired during the two and a half months since the Okra Strut took place.



    For instance, the above-referenced article, among other things, included a statement that Rudy Giuliani was looking at South Carolina as a springboard to win Florida on Jan. 29. Apparently, the former New York City mayor’s board has lost some of its spring since then as Real Clear Politics shows Rudy leading the Palmetto State GOP race in only one of five polls.



    The article included a mention of Fred Thompson as a native Southerner, popular actor, and former senator from Tennessee, is aiming to jump-start his campaign by sweeping the South, with South Carolina a virtual must-win. And he's still waiting. A Real Clear Politics poll average today shows Thompson in a virtual third-place tie with Giuliani.



    Mitt Romney was said to have spent more time and money in the state than Giuliani. After spending that much money (and missing the Okra Strut due to a brief illness), the former Massachusetts governor finds himself mired in second place.



    And, finally, the article gave mention to Mike Huckabee as a Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor who has drawn some excitement from evangelicals and conservative activists, but remains far back in the polls and fund-raising. Since then, however, Huckabee has surged into first place in South Carolina.



    An Associated Press article four days ago might help explain his rise in popularity.



    Huckabee is quoted as saying, "Carrots. I just don't like carrots. I banned them from the governor's mansion when I was governor of Arkansas because I could." Nowhere in the article, however, does one find Huckabee expressing any disdain for the slimy green vegetable to which he might owe his success.



    That's why, I think it's safe to conclude, that this one-time long-shot candidate does indeed owe his success to something -- most likely, the Okra Effect.



    I won't be surprised if his campaign rallies begin to feature segments during which throngs of Huckabee supporters chant a new slogan, "ALL HAIL OKRA!™"
  • Webber · 2 years ago
    LoL@Bob McCarty...


    I'm glad to see that some conservative, homespun, okra-loving republicans are reading this blog.



    When you all finally choose a nominee to face Barack, I hope that you will continue to be cordial, "try to play fair" and not pull any of the dirty-tricks that history has shown your party capable of doing.
  • Ronnie B · 2 years ago
    Oh they will. And we know they will.


    If and when Barack is the nominee, I believe the GOP will not only exploit race, they will spin it in such a way that Barack will be to blame for it.



    Now, they don't want to have to do that, but they will. This, in my opinion, is one reason why they're so intent on Hillary getting the nomination. That way, they don't have to appear so obvious in their racial politicking.
  • D. · 2 years ago
    I think that if Obama become the nominee (which isn't a foregone conclusion), it will be a lot easier to compare the records of ANY potential Republican nominee and find Obama lacking a strong record and any sembelance of hard decision-making.
  • Ronnie B · 2 years ago
    The biggest difference between Obama and ANY potential Republican nominees is that he hasn't been a "politician" as long as they have.
  • D. · 2 years ago
    And that makes him a viable candidate because he doesn't "know" the system?
  • Webber · 2 years ago
    Viability? Likability? Electability?


    Before Obama's 2004 Convention-Keynote Address, I was like much of the US Population that doesn't keep up with politics. I wondered, "Who da HEEL is this Obama guy?"



    After that speech, I was a believer.



    Just a speech? To some people, it was just a speech. To others like myself, it was a VISION.



    There's a scripture that reads, "Where there is no vision, the people perish."



    And after six years of blind-visionless leadership, we've seen people perish...on 9/11...in New Orleans...and continuously dying in Iraq.



    I'm sorry that some people can't get over the fact that Obama is neither "experienced" as Hillary nor Cheney or Rumsfeld.



    I'm excited for Democrats. I'm excited for America.



    1980s: Reagan Democrats

    2000s: Obama Republicans
  • NMP · 2 years ago
    Rikyrah,


    The Clinton campaign has decided to use retroactivity for crack cocaine sentences as part of their argument for his unelectability.



    The primary argument against his electability are polls that say DEMOCRATS THINK she is the most electable. So now it comes down to what Democrats think rather than reality? I hope and expect that Senator Obama will respond that Senator Clinton confuses perception with reality...while Demcorats THINK she is the most electable, the same polls she cites say otherwise. In head-to-head match-ups, she performs the worse, the only Democrat that loses to McCaine and does the worse against Giuliani, Romney and Hucabee.



    As to retroactivity, Obama merely needs to tout the recent decision by the Supreme Court that hands discretion BACK to Federal Judges and the Sentencing Commission moving forward with retroactivity, as Ambinder points out.



    The larger question for the hankerchief heads, as you like to call them, supporting Hillary Clinton is will they join her in effectively using a Wille Horton on Obama...using the unjust incarceration of mostly Black men as a wedge issue to scare White folks against Obama?



    http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/12/clinton_will_close_on_electabi_1.php
  • D. · 2 years ago
    Webb,
    That's nice.



    And the fact that Obama's campaign began RIGHT THERE-before he had even been sworn in as a senator-is just one more reason I can't support him.
  • rikyrah · 2 years ago
    NMP,


    I read that too at The Atlantic.com.



    Uh huh.



    Will those handkerchief heads speak up.
  • Webber · 2 years ago
    Thanks d., support whomever you want.


    In tomorrow's debate, we will all see how desperate Hillary is to win and how Barack will respond/react to the live knifing.



    It's the last debate before the caucuses.
  • NMP · 2 years ago
    Rikyrah,


    Update: Not only does the Supreme Court and Bush's Sentencing Commission agree with Obama, but Kennedy has an even more stiffer bill to end the disparity co-sponsored with Orin Hatch. Joe Biden has an even tougher bill. So she's not only to the right of the Democratic Party leadership. She's too the right of Anthony Scalia and Orin Hatch. Good God, she's making this too easy!
  • rikyrah · 2 years ago
    NMP,


    NOW they are using Obama's old drug use...



    Via Andrew Sullivan's Blog:



    The hints were there already, but now a Clinton surrogate is flaying Obama for his refreshing candor about past drug-use. Again: this is the politics of fear. Check out the classic Clinton defensive crouch with respect to the GOP:



    "The Republicans are not going to give up without a fight ... and one of the things they're certainly going to jump on is his drug use," said Shaheen, the husband of former N.H. governor Jeanne Shaheen, who is planning to run for the Senate next year. Billy Shaheen contrasted Obama's openness about his past drug use -- which Obama mentioned again at a recent campaign appearance in New Hampshire -- with the approach taken by George W. Bush in 1999 and 2000, when he ruled out questions about his behavior when he was "young and irresponsible."





    So a Clintonite is urging that Obama follow W's example. Somehow, I don't think this is going to help. But it's a sign of how worried they are that their coronation has turned into something a little more complicated.
  • Ronnie B · 2 years ago
    And that makes him a viable candidate because he doesn't "know" the system?


    It makes Obama a viable candidate because he is yet to be systematized. Which is precisely the excuse that some people seem to so desparately need.
  • D. · 2 years ago
    I am all for being unsystematized...but at least have some knowledge of the system and an ability to work inside it, rather than just bucking it all together in the name of "change."
  • ronnie b. · 2 years ago
    If Obama had no knowledge of the "system" and how to work it, he'd never have been elected as a state senator, let alone a US senator. He would never have gotten laws and initiatives passed in Illinois.


    Hell, if he didn't have the competence and aptitude that you claim he's lacking, he'd never have been able to get into Columbia or Harvard, let alone graduate from and shine at those institutions.



    Come on, now. The neophyte you're describing is Mike Gravel, not Barack Obama.
  • ronnie b. · 2 years ago
    Correction:


    I know you don't question Obama's competence and aptitude per se. I just don't think you give him the proper credit for having the same in order to understand, navigate and work said "system".
  • D. · 2 years ago
    Leave out his election to the Senate. Satan could run against Alan Keyes and win. And that's coming from a conservative.


    You're right; I don't question his competence. Oddly enough, in researching, I've found that we're not that far apart on the core of most issues-just that our methods to get to the end are somewhat different.



    My only problem with Obama is that I'm not sure, with everything that's going on in the country, he can step up and lead a nation when he's only held office on a national scale for a few years. If this were 2012, I'd probably be down. But right now, at least for me-I do question his experience.
  • ronnie b. · 2 years ago
    We agree that the country and the world have changed, and that things are headed in an uncertain direction. At the same time, there really are no other candidates who distinguish themselves beyond being experienced in the current "system". A system that is proving to be not only a failed one, but one that doesn't appear to be appropriate for our new and changing times.


    So ironically, we're at a time where, as far as experience is concerned, less is more.
  • D. · 2 years ago
    We do agree on that. And while we don't agree that the system has failed, I think we can agree that there does need to be a shake up of sorts.
  • Webber · 2 years ago
    Not only did Barack shine at Harvard. He was like W.E.B. DuBois--the First African-American to ever preside over the Harvard Law Review which required both academic acuity and political savvy.


    Barack specialized in constitutional law. He taught consitutional law at the University of Chicago. He knows the constitution "inside and out."



    He will not treat the constitution like toilet paper as BUSH has done. He'll respect that the executive branch is a co-equal branch with the congress and supreme court.



    He will not try to shove "healthcare" down the congress's throat as Hillary tried to do (and FAILED) in '93-94.



    Hillary likes to say, "I've learned my lesson," but she really has not.

    Her emotional intelligence has not evolved. She presumed that her nomination was inevitable and that she deserved it.



    In Iowa, she is about to get schooled by the Professor.
  • Oprah's Things · 2 years ago
    It will be interesting election...unlike any other...YouTube Debates...Oprah..whats next?
  • Webber · 2 years ago
    From today's debate, tHis was PRICELESS:


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/13/obama-hillary-im-look_n_76706.html



    Obama: "Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me as well."



    I'm sorry folks...I'm a fan.
  • rikyrah · 2 years ago
    Webber, I rewound it, over and over. It was funny.
  • Francis L. Holland Blog · 2 years ago
    This election is going to have an historical impact because, whether its Hillary or Barack, Democrats are going to nominate someone who is NOT a white man and this will be a tremendous break with the rules of the white male supremacy paradigm. So, I expect to be cheering when the results of Iowa and New Hampshire become know regardless of who wins these primaries, whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.


    However, I the may not last long if it's Barack Obama. I'm afraid that the Republicans will take him apart like a Christmas turkey. He has no experience battling at the level that they're going to attack him, and the attack is going to last ten long months.



    If a Black person rapes someone white, the Republicans are going to ask Barack Obama to personally disavow the rapist and agree that he should receive the death penalty. If he refuses on either of these points, they will say that he's soft on crime and can't defend white people because he's beholden to Black people . . .



    Meanwhile, the will rename Barack Obama "Sadaam Obama" and they will continually call him this until America is so tired of hearing this name that they just want the problem to go away.



    They would attack Hillary Clinton in the same ways, but remember that Bill Clinton had a 70% approval rating at the end of his presidency, even after the Republicans had tried to impeach him. So, the Clintons know what it feels like in the Republican oven.



    Obama is a student of American history and he's not ignorant of what the Republicans will do. But he's never had personal experience combating it. He's like a person who has seen baseball but never played.



    I won't cry for Hillary if Barack is the nominee. But I'm afraid that I'll eventually cry for Barack.