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April 30, 2008
James Pethokoukis
Out: Recession. In: Expansion. That's my quick take on today's first-quarter gross domestic product number, which showed that the economy grew 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Now that's not a robust number by any means, but it's not so bad given all the worry out there that the economy is headed off a cliff. Before you declare a recession, as many economic pundits have, shouldn't the economy, well, actually recess a bit—if only for a quarter?
Remember, the shorthand rule for declaring a recession is back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The semiofficial recession judge, the National Bureau of Economic Research, has a more complex formula, but I am not sure it has ever declared a recession when the economy never actually shrank. And consider this: The Intrade online betting market now says there is a meager 25 percent chance of a recession—using the negative-back-to-back-quarters definition—in 2008.
Plus, don't forget that there's a lag before all that monetary stimulus from the Fed kicks in. (It's not too late to do nothing today, Bernanke!) Who knows—those rebate checks might even help a bit, though we're probably not getting much bang for the nearly $200 billion we're spending.
As a movie buff, I keep looking for the right cinematic analogy for the American economy. Try this one: It's like the Terminator. Not the Schwarzenegger one—the other one, the Terminator from the second film. You could empty a shotgun—or in this case, an imploding housing market, credit crunch, and high oil prices—into that morphing metal dude, and before you know it, the thing's all healed and chasing you again.
A MUST READ:
Former DNC Chair under Bill Clinton and Indiana Super Delegate Endorses Obama and Calls for Party Unity NOW
Meanwhile, polls suggest Mrs. Nixon could pull of the big upset in North Carolina.
Joe Andrews (IND, former DNC Chair)
John Patrick (TX DNC member)
Mayor Daley
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL House Majority Leader)
Todd Stroger (Cook County Bd President)
Clinton is expected to get John Olsen (CT AFL-CIO President)
Project Trinity: The perilous mission of Obama's Church
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/04/07/080407fa_fact_sanneh?currentPage=1
first of all,
that poll has Black turnout at 25%(the professionals say it will be AT LEAST 34%..some believe going as high as 38%)
and Obama only getting 65% of the Black vote.
So, you tell me if you believe it.
But, if it motivates Obama folks, good.
This was funny.
On My Switch From Clinton to Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-j-andrew/on-my-switch-from-clinton_b_99621.html
Watch MSNBC NOW. Joseph Andrew is on and he is great.
Vogue Italia has announced they will devote their entire July issue to Black fashion models. I wrote about it at
http://spilledtea.com/spilledteablog/?p=592 .
And here's what's wrong with liberal thought: if you disagree, or even make an attempt to disagree, you're the enemy.
I'm not trusting that NC poll either. But we should note that most of the polls show a tightening in North Carolina from double to single digits.
Obama's down by 4 in the Gallup daily tracking poll (but that bounces around every week).
I've also noticed a disturbing trend in the last few primaries. He's underperforming via his poll numbers. Exit polling is shot. The Bradley Effect might be at play. The exit polls in PA were closer than the actual results.
Obama needs to build some type of a cushion.
Obama should win NC. I read that the black vote quadrupled since 2004.
But Obama better get on the ball. He's still reacting to the media cycle. STOP THAT! He should be doing EVERYTHING in his power to get ahead of the cycle.
I want to see his face everywhere, on every station for the entire weekend. I want to see him engage the public. I don't care how. Go on the nightly talk shows. . . go on day time talk shows. Make a surprise guest appearance somewhere. Just DO SOMETHING!
All I know is I see Hillary's face everywhere. And every time you see her, she's got a new spin or narrative for the media to bite at.
There's nothing stopping Obama from doing the same.
Don't get me wrong. I like the fact that Obama's going to be on Meet the Press this Sunday. But he needs more air time that's not related to Rev. Wright.
And if he is asked about Rev. Wright, he should do like Kerry the other day and turn it around on the media. He should memorize a list of important issues that have gone ignored because of the Wright coverage and just throw them all back in the media's face.
He also needs a hook that works with the working class. He might have tapped into something earlier today: prescription drugs.
Plus, someone needs to tell him to get some emotion and passion back in his voice. He looks and sounds tired. He's a better man than I. It must be exhausting. But this is no time to slow down. He's right at the finish line. . . it's about time he crossed it.
Where are his surrogates? What is their central talking point going in to May 6?
I'm with Obama all the way. THE MATH DON'T LIE! He's got this nomination in his control.
But he needs to sharpen his campaigning skills and quick.
Obama doesn't want a dissapointing May 6. Why? Not because of the math, but because of the perception.
Hillary's got two blow out states coming up in Kentucky and West Virginia. They're small states, but Hillary could easily get 60-65% of the vote there. He doesn't want to stumble into Kentucky and West Virginia. Hillary is COUNTING on the headlines she'll get coming out of those two states.
The MATH wins the nomination. But the drama sells ratings. And right now the media is all too happy to sell the drama, regardless of what it does to the Democratic process.
Obama should know this. He should be prepared for this. He needs to fight back against someone or something. I don't care who or what it is. It could be the Clintons as a team. It could be McCain. It could even be the media. But Obama better stop coasting.
A loss in NC or a big loss in IN won't kill his campaign. But it will kill his momentum (which has already taken a huge hit) and cause a major headache as Obama tries to get back on his feet.
I'm not ranting because I think he'll lose the nomination. I repeat, much of this is all spin. The MATH is and will remain the main issue.
But, to the extent he can, Obama needs to END this DRAMA. It's one thing to be the nominee (which I fully expect he will be). But he doesn't want to be a weakened nominee. He's starting to make this much harder than it needs to be.
Hey Obama: GET THE LEAD OUT!
Not only should his face be everywhere, he should do like Michelle did on CNN last night and if asked with questions about J. Wright--" I've said all I can about that, lets move forward." and let it be. Its done. Friendship done. Game over. Next!
Also, all us supporters should go to my.barackobama.com and use the phone calling tool to call as many people as we can stand in NC and Indiana this weekend. I have promised myself I will call at least 75 people in NC and In. combined.
http://info.detnews.com/video/index.cfm?id=2198
What the hell is going on with the black detroit politicos?
Rev. Marshall Hatch tore me up.
Be respectful of those who've already made up their minds, but be civil and firm with those who haven't. Be prepared to address their indecision.
And we have to find a non-racially charged way to let white undecided voters know that a Barack presidency wouldn't mean Barack would employ retribution on white people.
When you get right down to it, that's what many white people who don't feel comfortable voting for him are afraid of.
Obama to appear on Meet the Press
Obama appeared on CNN
Obama appeared on Today...
I am sure he will squeeze something in on Mon
I saw that and was cracking up!
that's a scary article.
You know my answer...
HELL YEAH.
Iran complains to UN about Clinton's 'provocative' remarks
Got to that link from thepage.time.com, here
PS Truthseeker, thanks, I really could have done without this image in my head: Or Bill Clinton's quivering, flabby thighs while he took sexual advantage of Monica. The eyes of my imagination hurt now. Ow.
Do the right thing and shut up, Lee urges pastor
Three Candidates, Two Sets of Rules - Is It Racism?
From the blogs at the Houston Chronicle:
This one actually popped up in the Houstron Chronicle (shock!) - which in editorial content is usually about as right wing and racist as it gets in mainstram media in America -
Three Candidates, Two Sets of Rules - Is It Racism?
Posted 5/1/2008 8:40 AM CDT
Why is it that the rules are different for Barack Obama, the African-American candidate, than the rules for Hillary Clinton and John McCain, the white candidates? Does it come from an inherent unfairness due to generations of stereotyping, or does it possibly result from an xenophobic fear of those who are different from us? Is it simply media in a feeding frenzy or is it scorched earth politics from blind ambition that destroys innocent people’s reputations just to gain advantage?
What am I talking about? I’m talking about the elephant in the room that everyone ignores. The elephant is the different standards we have for a black candidate than we have for a white one. Is it true? Absolutely. Here are a few examples: Neither Hillary or McCain wear flag pins on their lapels. Obama gets blasted by the media and right wing hate sites for not wearing one. Why is that? Why is it that he gets the question about it in every debate, but it’s never been asked of the other candidates? Why do Hillary and McCain get a free pass? Obama is clearly a patriotic American who says the pledge of allegiance and loves his country, but is continually questioned in the media about that.
Hillary has been knowingly married to a lying, philandering skirt chaser for 33 years. She never gets her judgment or character questioned about that. McCain is on his second marriage to a woman he dated while still married to his first wife. He never gets questions about that. So, then, why is it that Obama, married for 16 years to Michelle, and father to 2 beautiful daughters, has his character, family values, and judgment continually called into question while the media COMPLETELY IGNORES Hillary’s and McCain’s dysfunctional family life and judgment?
John McCain actively sought the endorsement of John Hagee, a war mongering, racist, radical right wing preacher who’s known for his fiery rhetoric and has publicly called the Catholic church “the great whore”. The media gives him a pass, yet Obama is continually raked over the coals for his relationship with his pastor who has also made inflammatory statements. What is the difference? Where is the media outrage over John Hagee? Non-existent.
Hillary and Bill have earned over $100 million in the last 10 years, not counting 2007. McCain is married to a woman estimated to be worth over $100 million. Obama, who started with nothing, earned $4 million from book sales last year. Who’s the elitist in the media’s eyes? Obama. CNN even gave McCain a complete pass on Cindy not releasing her tax returns and actually listed him below Obama in family net worth. They’ve also completely ignored him using her private jet in apparent violation of his own campaign finance law.
McCain also admits he understands little about the economy, continually gaffs on foreign policy, yet the media paints Obama as the lightweight. Hillary has little more experience than Obama in government service or management, grossly inflates her participation in her husband's administration, yet she gets a pass on her lie that she has 35 years experience, and again, Obama gets painted as inexperienced.
Hillary and McCain are both well known for not being able to hold their tempers. In fact she's famous for her lamp incident with Bill, so what happens? Obama gets painted as "too nice". Come again?
What’s going on here? After watching this for over a year, I’ve come to the conclusion that it is just what I feared: Incipient racism, xenophobia; organic in form, subtle, yet plain as the nose on your face if you just look for it. To me, there is no other logical reason for the two sets of rules, the unfairness of coverage, the application of standards.
Food for thought.
How do I know Bill's got flabby thighs? A clip from when he was President..he was jogging in short shorts. Sorry for the imagery..lol just had to share the love.
Ok. You gotta stop with the Bill visuals...
uummmm...yeah..ya gotta stop
I've been dying for someone to write about this. Gives some background on what happened in Michigan's primary.
Funny help for Superdelegates with cold feet.
Black Kos, Sistah Speak on Rev. Wright
Here's an excerpt: I keep wondering if in his actions, Wright wasn’t giving Obama what he needed to move forward. Jeremiah is not a stupid man. I do not believe he is jealous of Obama. I do not believe he is a narcissist. The narcissists get the million dollar home as soon as the church can afford it. They don’t put the church’s money into programs.
I’m sure I saw something in Jeremiah’s eyes.
I do not believe for one moment he needs attention. When you have a church for as long as he, attention is something you get plenty of. One day I’ll tell you how I know.
No, what I believe he intended to do was take the attention and shape it to Obama’s need. This he did. He said over a year ago that Obama would need to distance himself from him. Since Obama couldn’t bring himself to do it, Wright did it for him.
Anyway to read the whole thing, go here.
(I don't know what to think about it. If true, it would explain something I have found puzzling in my own reaction to the whole thing. But really I don't know what to think about it. Of course I haven't actually seen that Q&A.; I have read comments on it and take descriptions from rikyrah and others in that vein as accurate. I did read the Moyers interview transcript)
"Drudge is reporting that Clinton will have an Indiana town hall on Sunday, aired by ABC, and hosted by (drum roll) - George Stephanapolous!"
Ok, I have a SERIOUS problem with this.
Doesn't this strike anyone else as being kind of odd?
My point is this:
Besides the obvious conflict of interest posed by a former Clinton staffer hosting a Clinton town hall event . . .
Aren't there any "EQUAL TIME" legal issues with this town hall event?
Seriously.
I mean, we're basically talking about a 1 hour pro-Hillary event on national broadcast television.
It's not like this is an interview. It's a town hall meeting where she'll likely get to control the direction of the conversation and, quite possibly, the questions themselves.
Why is ABC giving her a 1 hour block of free air time?
Maybe I'm mistaken, but this raises some serious concerns for me.
They'd have to do the same for Obama and McCain.
US CODE: Title 47, sec. 315
If any licensee shall permit any person who is a legally qualified candidate for any public office to use a broadcasting station, he shall afford equal opportunities to all other such candidates for that office in the use of such broadcasting station: Provided, That such licensee shall have no power of censorship over the material broadcast under the provisions of this section. No obligation is imposed under this subsection upon any licensee to allow the use of its station by any such candidate. Appearance by a legally qualified candidate on any—
(1) bona fide newscast,
(2) bona fide news interview,
(3) bona fide news documentary (if the appearance of the candidate is incidental to the presentation of the subject or subjects covered by the news documentary), or
(4) on-the-spot coverage of bona fide news events (including but not limited to political conventions and activities incidental thereto),
shall not be deemed to be use of a broadcasting station within the meaning of this subsection. Nothing in the foregoing sentence shall be construed as relieving broadcasters, in connection with the presentation of newscasts, news interviews, news documentaries, and on-the-spot coverage of news events, from the obligation imposed upon them under this chapter to operate in the public interest and to afford reasonable opportunity for the discussion of conflicting views on issues of public importance.
I read that. And, you know, I hope this is the case, because the other thought is just too painful, ya know?
I'm still hurting.
it's so blatant, they aren't even pretending anymore. You can go over to DailyKos, they have names and phone numbers to call. But, yeah, it's bascially a free hour of advertising for Hillpatine.
Have they offered the same to Obama and McCain?
If not, then hell yeah, it's ridiculous.
Barack did what he had to do...and I respect that.
I also read what Spike Lee had to say.
Sorry to say, I'm more in line with Lee than Black Kos.
And I'm still hurting, too.
Stephanie Tubbs Jones has a fundraising page at ActBlue. She's raised a grand total of $1 from 1 donor.
Craig posted about Ben Chandler, the KY superdelegate who's supporting Obama and has been getting racist phonecalls. He raised 20,000 since yesterday.
I feel safer, don't you?
Yes, your government at work.
I read what Spike Lee had to say. He has been discussing this whole election for a while. Obama called him and told him that his first date with Michelle was to see, "Do The Right Thing".
However I went to a talk with Spike last year and he was nasty in regards to Obama like everyone else at the time like Russell Simmons who has also chimed in and Cornel West who was cheering on Wright at the NPC. It's interesting, I was in Obama's court since he announced his candidacy and I was against mostly everyone in the black community. Now i;m sick of the whole election and everyone is enthusiatic.
I think I started too early. It's like getting drunk for a party at 9pm when it doesnt get poppin until like 12:30 or 1 am. Everyone is all hype then and i'm ready to go home.
http://www.maynardije.org/columns/dickprince/080430_prince/
Barbara A. Reynolds
Columnist Defends Role in Wright Appearance; Says She'll Ask Obama Campaign for Apology
I want to believe what that essay says, but am still confused about WTF is going on, and will probably will stay that way for a while.
Festival of Wright
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=167429&title;=festival-of-wrights
Spiritual Advisor
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=167430&title;=spiritual-advisor&to;=2
You peopla are a bit much for me. If you did not understand that Wright was trying to be puposely defiant to the media rather than some good negro then I dont know anymore. I will apologize for him that he did not stand still and say yes massah, no massah. He was obviously not taking it seriously because he refuses to bend over for the white mainstream media. That is how I interpreted it.
As for Obama being a politican, he is. Wright is a minister.Wright has no need to be politcally correct because he aint running for POTUS. Obama is. I say this all the time when people go Rhonda, dont say this, dont say that...I say, I owe nothing to nobody, I could care less what people think. However if I am trying to get a job, if I am trying to keep a job then I am more politically correct, respectful etc...
Why is what Wright has to say so serious? It just proves that this whole thing is just ridiculous.
Also, Wright needs no god-damn attention. He is a prominent minister, he used to be televised and he has been invited both nationally and internationally invited to speak. Obama's candidacy basically ended it for him. He did not benefit Obama. I believed that he wished that after 35+ years of ministry, public service, inspiration to so many, recognition etc...his leagcy could be intact rather than being seen as a hate monger with with a church (that started with 80 and went to 8,000) that is considered as more than a cult.
Nobody is paying him SHIT, nobody bribed him.
He refuses to kneel at the altar of the white establishment, white Americans and any politican including Obama. That is how I saw it.
P.S.Spike Lee was the first person that I have ever heard, make comments about a U.S. conspiracy around AIDS. The guy has more conspiracies than anybody. Many of his views are controversial. My cousin, Chris works for Forty Acres and a Mule. He has been with them since 92 out here in BK. If he and Obama had a twenty year relationship, then all that may be used a kryptonite. Knowing Lee the way I do, he would not be one to shut up that is fo'sho!!
Obama denounced Wright and called what he said "divisive" and "hate" speech. Obama has now distanced himself and can move on. The media created hysteria in my opinion. I watched the Q&A; and came out with a different opinion because I did not here all real egotists....the pundits. I believe that Obama is free and clear. I believe that this whole thing has helped him.
Moving On...